ENGLISH RECORD 90
Scenario Planning: More Than One Future
It should not collapse into selecting the most dramatic story and calling it a forecast.Modern organizational foresightGlobalScenarios · decision-making
01 · WHAT IT IS
Overview
Scenario planning constructs multiple coherent futures to test decisions under uncertainty.
02 · ORIGINAL TEXT AND EARLIEST SOURCE
What can be traced?
03 · HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
The world behind the text
An original strategic-foresight diagram showing scenarios as adaptable alternatives rather than a single predicted future.
SALGIL original illustration · record sources below ↗05 · DOCUMENT TIMELINE
When the record changed
- Earliest reviewable baselineOECD Strategic Foresight anchors the first layer used on this page.
- Interpretation expandsDriver analysis · scenario set · signposts · strategic revision
- Claim meets outcomeThe method is judged by decision usefulness and learning, not by claiming one scenario was secretly certain.
- SALGIL editorial reviewOriginal, interpretation and outcome are retained as separate records.
06 · EDITION AND WITNESS COMPARISON
How the evidence for Scenario Planning: More Than One Future changes
The date of a document and the date of an interpretation are recorded separately.| Witness or edition | Date | Editorial status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Strategic Foresight | 1960s–present | Baseline source | It should not collapse into selecting the most dramatic story and calling it a forecast. |
| Scholarly or institutional interpretation | Later review | Context layer | Explains language, history and uncertainty without becoming the original text. |
| Viral quotation or modern event match | Recent circulation | Derivative layer | Most vulnerable to translation drift, omitted failures and hindsight; compare with OECD Strategic Foresight. |
07 · MAJOR CLAIMS
Representative claims and their limits
Central claim
Alternative futures expose assumptions and improve resilience.
Original-first test
The claim is checked against OECD Strategic Foresight, not against a later summary.
Outcome test
The method is judged by decision usefulness and learning, not by claiming one scenario was secretly certain.
08 · WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED
Comparison with events
The method is judged by decision usefulness and learning, not by claiming one scenario was secretly certain.09 · DISPUTES AND COUNTERARGUMENTS
Where interpretation changes
The main dispute concerns the distance between 1960s–present and Driver analysis · scenario set · signposts · strategic revision. Translation, selective quotation, changed definitions and hindsight can make a broad record appear more exact than it was. Competing readings are therefore preserved rather than silently merged.10 · EVIDENCE SCORE & PROVISIONAL CONCLUSION
Method record
Scenario planning constructs multiple coherent futures to test decisions under uncertainty. SALGIL's provisional score reflects source traceability and testability, not religious worth or cultural importance.11 · SOURCES AND REVIEW